Supply pressure to slow down the steel price shock rebound

Economic downside risks remain, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, private investment is slightly better, real estate investment is still relatively weak, manufacturing industries accelerate slightly fell slightly in steel production, steel exports remain strong, domestic supply pressure, short-term hong kong-listed range. Next week (2015.3.16-3.20) the domestic steel market will shock rebound.

Weeks price forecasting model according to Lange steel information research center data calculation, next week (2015.3.16-3.20) for domestic steel market prices will shock rebound, rose slightly in long products prices will be stable, profile market prices rose slightly, plank market prices will shock rebound, small-scope fluctuation in the pipe market prices will be stable. Lange steel national steel composite price index is expected to near 102, steel price in 2800 yuan, an average volatility 30-50 yuan; Among them, the long products prices fluctuate index is expected to near 103.8 points, edged up 0.2. Material price index is expected to near 106.8 fluctuations, edged up 0.2. Plank price index is expected to near 98.8 fluctuations, edged up 0.2. Pipe price index is expected to near 107.5 fluctuations, edged up 0.1 points (see figure 1).

Figure 1 Lange steel price index trend chart

Lange steel information research center, market research, according to data next week (2015.3.16-3.20) for domestic long will steadily rose slightly in the market price of materials, material market prices rose slightly, plank market prices were mixed, tubing small fluctuations in market prices will be stable; Small fluctuations in market prices of raw materials will be steady, strong trend in the price of iron ore market will be steady, coke market prices will remain stable, scrap market price will be fluctuated, billet small fluctuations in market prices will be stable (see chart 1).

1. This week, domestic steel market shock consolidation

2015 11 weeks (2015.3.9-3.13) Lange steel national steel composite price index reached 101.8 points, down 0.75% compared with last week, down 21.68% from a year earlier. Among them, the LGMI long products prices index was 103.6 points, up 0.02% from last week, down 21.74% from a year earlier. LGMI material price index to 106.6 points, down 0.09% compared with last week, down 21.60% from a year earlier. LGMI plank price index to 98.6 points, down 1.57% compared with last week, down 21.16% from a year earlier. LGMI pipe price index to 107.4 points, down 0.36% compared with last week, down 19.66% from a year earlier (see figure 1).

Market monitoring according to Lange steel information research center, 2015, 11 weeks domestic original fuel parts of steel and steel products 17 class 44 specifications (varieties) of price changes are as follows: the main varieties of steel market price shock consolidation, compared with last week, rose varieties increased dramatically, flat varieties decreased, fall varieties decreased significantly. Rise in 18 varieties, increase over the week 15; Ten kinds of flat, reduce the three from last week; Fell 16 varieties, to reduce 12 last week. Domestic steel market price shock consolidation raw materials, iron ore market price stability in the small decline in 5-15 yuan, coke market price stability in the small decline in 20 yuan, scrap steel market prices slightly, billet market prices rose 50-120 yuan.