Stainless steel weak pattern cannot change in October

In the third quarter of this year, the domestic economic downward pressure is bigger, weak demand. Both nickel and stainless steel, the market of the main tone is downward, the stainless steel market in the stage of to inventory. Tianjin Li Yanxin stainless steel association secretary-general, said the price of stainless steel repeatedly dip squealed the steel mills and traders, as China and the international financial market volatility, macro economic uncertainty increases, the market confidence obviously inadequate. Due to insufficient demand fundamentals and the uncertainty of economic trends, is expected in October this year the domestic stainless steel main market pattern of weak hard to change. To make the main basis of the above judgment is as follows:

A weakness is a major steel stainless steel downstream industry. In September, according to data, manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 49.8%, up 0.1% last month, in a row back slightly rebounded after two months. Although the PMI in September began to recover, but is still at the critical point here, and below the record level, indicates that the internal and external demand remains weak, manufacturing downward pressure is still large. In September, steel downstream total orders index was 45.4%, fell 2.2%, that steel downstream demand. Among them, the domestic orders index was 45.4%, fell 2.2%, showed that reduce the amount of orders in the domestic users in September; Export orders index was 46.2%, fell 2.1%, according to foreign demand is also reduced. , according to the statistics from the relevant monitor 2015 cold (i.e., in the previous year before August this year in September), air conditioning market change trend in quantity, amount, sales fell 5.4%, sales fell 10.50%, which indirectly influenced the stainless steel market. In the fourth quarter, as the weather turn gradually cool, air conditioning sales will be more cold, stainless steel demand will be affected by reasonably.

Second, the third quarter of this year prices downward. Since 2015, nickel prices continued rebound in 2014 after high continuous down trend, even under the empty square hype without bottom line “capricious” fall. In the third quarter, Aaron nickel (LME) under the basic line. In July, Aaron nickel price is highest in the quarter, after a record low, and in late August fell below $10000 a tonne mark; In September, Aaron nickel prices have welcomed “the gold nine”, stumbled along the way. Nickel prices is a piece of floating green, forcing many nickel iron production enterprises have to make up my mind to production or shut down, many nickel ore traders also unable to adhere to the business. Nickel industry chain profits continue to shrink in the third quarter, part of the nickel enterprise losses increased. 2015 cost of nickel prices seriously deviate from the bottom line, cause nickel iron and nickel production situation continued to expand. Investigate its reason, macro is the main reason of the weak global economy, the domestic stock market shocks, and spread to the global financial market, coupled with the third quarter itself also is in the off-season, nickel market demand is limited. The nickel in the fourth quarter, if demand is weak, inventories are still high, so will continue to weak.

Three is the stainless steel market mainstream price downturn. Like Aaron ni moves, the third quarter of the stainless steel market also is weak, the difference is the stainless steel price adjustment more cautious, most merchants with nickel prices adjust, take with down without too much with up policy, operating methods tend to be more in the short term, with a low inventory fast forward, careful quotation is given priority to with benefits to pay off. Because of the growth slowdown in domestic economic environment downstream demand is difficult to have obvious moderate, merchants rational clinch a deal, along with nickel prices downward, the third quarter of the stainless steel spot market remained weak steady state of fine-tuning. Currently, the main stainless steel distribution center to the inventory stage. Early July, the wuxi stainless steel inventory volume of 175688 tons; In late September, the wuxi stainless steel inventories for a total of 139866 tons of inventory amount present decreasing trend.