China steel exports expected to exceed 90 MT in 2015

Tianjin stainless steel association, said XingZhongYing recent increase in high temperature rainy weather, outdoor construction delay, terminal purchasing intention is not strong, the shipping market weakness, steel mills bearish atmosphere is strong. Is expected in July this year the domestic stainless steel main market price is given priority to with weak partial stability.

The main basis of judgment are as follows:

One is the weaker demand side. As China’s manufacturing industry mixed in June: on the one hand, the industry has signs of improvement in output stabilization, new orders back slightly, the overall procurement activities also rose slightly. On the other hand, China’s manufacturing sector continued layoffs, layoffs in June for more than six years since the largest. Growth continues to fall at the same time, the downstream steel industry, such as China internal combustion engine industry association statistics show that in May 2015, the internal combustion engine in China sales of 4.8913 million units, fell 7.65%, fell 4.58% year on year. Overbuilt stainless steel market in general is still present.

Second, in the first half of Aaron nickel overall volatile downward. Though because of reduced inventory and during el nino, nickel prices rose also appear a few times, but have light because of downstream demand, the lack of support, failed to maintain. In the first half of the nickel price highs in early January, the closing price of $15357 / ton; The lowest point in March, the closing price of $12350 / ton, both differ 3007 dollars/ton. Aaron nickel movements, to drag on stainless steel market.

In the first half of 304 stainless steel plate prices all the way down, although rebound in early may have a rising trend, but is only a flash in the pan. In retrospect, in early January 14960 yuan/ton to be highest in the first half of 2015 stainless steel plate, and the lowest price is 13159 yuan/ton, price 1801 yuan/ton, or about 13.69%.

Three is the stainless steel market inventory pressure. January to may, key statistics of 10 domestic steel stainless steel plate production volume trend, which makes the stock market have increased. In early January to early June, the wuxi stainless steel inventories in 160000 tons of wandering up and down, slow consumption; Foshan district inventory from early January 19080 tons to 127315 tons, 108235 tons of inventory pressure.

Four is in the first half of the stainless steel factory main products factory price down. Recent ex-factory price of steel mills in July announced in succession, the basic is given priority to with lowered, thus the steel mill to be bearish about afternoon.

However, is expected to improve in the second half of the demand of stainless steel material environment. Intensive since this year, the national development and reform commission approval of investment projects more than 10 trillion yuan. At the same time, the state department also has also sent around supervision and inspection to promote major projects to fall to the ground as soon as possible, form the real quantity. Is expected to benefit appeared in the second half of the more positive effect. In addition, fiscal policy and monetary policy to adjust to the positive role of the real economy will be in 6 ~ 9 months after the peak. In the second half, including stainless steel material, domestic steel demand is expected to secure a stable environment, the actual demand growth is expected to increase to more than 3% year-on-year.